Betting toolBet planning
Positive EV Betting Tool
Compare a sportsbook price with your win probability to estimate expected value and edge.
- Free
- No sign-up
- Runs in your browser
Check a price for +EV
Calculation result
Example inputsEnter the example values to calculate a result.
How it works
Find a positive expected value price
Enter the stake, American odds, and your estimated probability of winning. The tool calculates expected net profit, return on stake, break-even probability, and the difference between your estimate and the price’s break-even rate.
A positive result depends on the probability you supply. The calculator does not identify opportunities from live odds or generate picks.
Positive EV is a long-run measure
A positive expected value wager is priced above break-even under a probability estimate. It can still lose, and short-term results do not prove that the estimate was accurate. The edge becomes more meaningful when estimates are calibrated and prices are recorded before the event.
For instance, a 50% estimate at +110 yields $5 EV per $100 stake. A 45% estimate at the same price yields negative EV, even though the payout looks attractive.
Make the estimate transparent
Record how you arrived at the probability and compare it with no-vig market prices. Check the market definition, line movement, and odds at placement. Recalculate if a price changes; a wager can move from positive to negative EV as the odds shift.
Frequently asked questions
What is a positive EV bet?
It is a wager whose expected net return is above zero under the probability estimate and payout entered.
How do I find +EV bets?
Compare a credible probability estimate with the price’s break-even probability and confirm the offered odds. This calculator evaluates an entered price; it does not scan markets.
Can positive EV betting guarantee profit?
No. A positive estimate can lose and depends on probability accuracy, execution, and repeatable pricing.